DCF Tool

QD

Qudian Inc – Software and Other Prerecorded Compact Disc, Tape, and Record Reproducing
趣分期是一个面向大学生的分期付款购物+p2p理财平台,为全国各地大学生提供趣分期消费服务,隶属于北京快乐时代科技发展有限公司。
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $7.89
Latest Price $2.34
Relative Value 70% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of -24.3%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.9%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of -24.3%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 0.12 0.115
2024 0.0907 0.084
2025 0.0686 0.0611
2026 0.0519 0.0445
2027 0.0393 0.0324
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 1.18 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 0.936 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 0.337 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 1.27 billion.

There are presently 161.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 7.89.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 1,603,172,892
Current Cash 1,285,127,576
Current Liabilities 84,798,264
Current Debt 4,213,216
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 237,460,268
Change in NCWC -348,200,658
EBIT -12,153,186
Tax Provision 13,399,458
Depreciation and Amortization 9,325,625
Capital Expenditure -39,668,181
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -390,696,400
Current Assets 1,917,134,309
Current Cash 1,254,035,833
Current Liabilities 77,437,549
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 585,660,926
Change in NCWC -124,131,334
EBIT 121,608,258
Tax Provision 40,872,113
Depreciation and Amortization 0
Capital Expenditure -75,070,574
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -115,018,545
Current Assets 1,789,093,869
Current Cash 1,006,974,313
Current Liabilities 72,327,294
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 709,792,261
Change in NCWC -912,875,922
EBIT 23,297,832
Tax Provision 40,092,985
Depreciation and Amortization 6,726,051
Capital Expenditure -33,941,890
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -921,793,572
Current Assets 2,473,828,322
Current Cash 443,085,208
Current Liabilities 558,475,493
Current Debt 150,400,563
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,622,668,184
Change in NCWC -142,822,833
EBIT 541,799,010
Tax Provision 89,737,600
Depreciation and Amortization 6,620,816
Capital Expenditure -10,946,375
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 307,440,496
Current Assets 2,297,599,667
Current Cash 363,624,100
Current Liabilities 729,717,459
Current Debt 561,232,910
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,765,491,018
Change in NCWC 124,154,393
EBIT 394,537,440
Tax Provision 22,930,946
Depreciation and Amortization 1,754,110
Capital Expenditure -20,409,646
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 476,544,604
Current Assets 2,940,086,797
Current Cash 1,091,969,237
Current Liabilities 1,428,444,032
Current Debt 1,221,663,098
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,641,336,624
Change in NCWC 868,137,147
EBIT 370,798,923
Tax Provision 39,124,564
Depreciation and Amortization 886,610
Capital Expenditure -1,729,746
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,198,937,565
Current Assets 997,989,772
Current Cash 175,138,625
Current Liabilities 652,170,907
Current Debt 602,519,237
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 773,199,476
Change in NCWC 691,398,045
EBIT 102,482,444
Tax Provision 18,269,087
Depreciation and Amortization 216,547
Capital Expenditure -663,598
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 774,955,759

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