DCF Tool

SIRI

Sirius XM Holdings Inc – Satellite Telecommunications
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is the leading audio entertainment company in North America, and the premier programmer and platform for subscription and digital advertising-supported audio products. Pandora, a subsidiary of SiriusXM, is the largest ad-supported audio entertainment streaming service in the U.S. SiriusXM and Pandora's properties reach more than 150 million listeners, the largest addressable audience in the U.S., across all categories of digital audio - music, sports, talk, and podcasts. SiriusXM's acquisitions of Stitcher and Simplecast, alongside industry-leading ad tech company AdsWizz, make it a leader in podcast hosting, production, distribution, analytics and monetization. SiriusXM, through Sirius XM Canada Holdings, Inc., also offers satellite radio and audio entertainment in Canada. In addition to its audio entertainment businesses, SiriusXM offers connected vehicle services to automakers.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $23.86
Latest Price $6.16
Relative Value 74% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 14.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 5.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 14.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 2.2 2.09
2023 2.52 2.27
2024 2.89 2.46
2025 3.31 2.68
2026 3.79 2.91
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 112 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 81.5 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 12.4 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 93.9 billion.

There are presently 3.94 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 23.86.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 2,360,000,000
Current Cash 382,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,960,000,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -3,982,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,712,000,000
EBIT 4,070,000,000
Tax Provision 424,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,166,000,000
Capital Expenditure -776,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,182,574,049
Current Assets 967,000,000
Current Cash 71,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,167,000,000
Current Debt 1,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,270,000,000
Change in NCWC 124,000,000
EBIT 1,862,000,000
Tax Provision 299,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 562,000,000
Capital Expenditure -350,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 903,260,465
Current Assets 1,003,000,000
Current Cash 106,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,293,000,000
Current Debt 2,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,394,000,000
Change in NCWC -18,571,000
EBIT 1,731,000,000
Tax Provision 283,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 468,000,000
Capital Expenditure -363,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,408,178,373
Current Assets 478,233,000
Current Cash 54,431,000
Current Liabilities 2,802,678,000
Current Debt 3,447,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,375,429,000
Change in NCWC 39,125,000
EBIT 1,726,144,000
Tax Provision 244,681,000
Depreciation and Amortization 300,720,000
Capital Expenditure -355,703,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,412,973,336
Current Assets 470,901,000
Current Cash 69,022,000
Current Liabilities 2,821,538,000
Current Debt 5,105,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,414,554,000
Change in NCWC -180,148,000
EBIT 1,645,425,000
Tax Provision 616,301,000
Depreciation and Amortization 298,602,000
Capital Expenditure -287,970,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 673,765,467
Current Assets 642,649,000
Current Cash 213,939,000
Current Liabilities 2,668,601,000
Current Debt 5,485,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,234,406,000
Change in NCWC -192,734,000
EBIT 1,444,658,000
Tax Provision 345,727,000
Depreciation and Amortization 268,979,000
Capital Expenditure -205,829,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 857,553,090
Current Assets 561,889,000
Current Cash 111,838,000
Current Liabilities 2,496,487,000
Current Debt 4,764,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,041,672,000
Change in NCWC -1,137,384,000
EBIT 1,178,688,000
Tax Provision 382,240,000
Depreciation and Amortization 272,214,000
Capital Expenditure -134,892,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -326,485,978
Current Assets 1,549,746,000
Current Cash 147,724,000
Current Liabilities 2,313,792,000
Current Debt 7,482,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -904,288,000
Change in NCWC 42,634,000
EBIT 1,119,670,000
Tax Provision 337,545,000
Depreciation and Amortization 266,423,000
Capital Expenditure -121,646,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 852,163,596
Current Assets 1,419,013,000
Current Cash 134,805,000
Current Liabilities 2,738,904,000
Current Debt 507,774,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -946,922,000
Change in NCWC 56,195,000
EBIT 1,051,872,000
Tax Provision 259,877,000
Depreciation and Amortization 253,314,000
Capital Expenditure -173,617,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 758,693,567
Current Assets 1,828,182,000
Current Cash 520,945,000
Current Liabilities 2,314,588,000
Current Debt 4,234,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,003,117,000
Change in NCWC 739,892,000
EBIT 872,579,000
Tax Provision -2,998,234,000
Depreciation and Amortization 266,295,000
Capital Expenditure -97,293,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,781,473,000

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