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J.M. Smucker Co. – Fruit and Vegetable Canning
Each generation of consumers leaves their mark on culture by establishing new expectations for food and the companies that make it. At The J.M. Smucker Co., it is our privilege to be at the heart of this dynamic with a diverse portfolio that appeals to each generation of people and pets and is found in nearly 90 percent of U.S. homes and countless restaurants. This includes a mix of iconic brands consumers have always loved such as Folgers®, Jif® and Milk-Bone® and new favorites like Café Bustelo®,Smucker's® Uncrustables® and Rachael Ray® Nutrish®. By continuing to immerse the company in consumer preferences and acting responsibly, it will continue growing our business and the positive impact the company has on society.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $363.17
Latest Price $154.11
Relative Value 58% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 5.0%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 5.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 1.1 1.07
2024 1.16 1.09
2025 1.22 1.11
2026 1.28 1.12
2027 1.34 1.14
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 40.2 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 33.2 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 5.53 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 38.7 billion.

There are presently 107.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 363.17.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 2,010,100,000
Current Cash 169,900,000
Current Liabilities 1,952,800,000
Current Debt 180,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 67,400,000
Change in NCWC 92,600,000
EBIT 1,182,200,000
Tax Provision 212,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 459,100,000
Capital Expenditure -417,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,019,238,800
Current Assets 1,941,700,000
Current Cash 334,300,000
Current Liabilities 2,867,500,000
Current Debt 1,234,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -25,200,000
Change in NCWC -267,700,000
EBIT 1,411,300,000
Tax Provision 295,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 452,500,000
Capital Expenditure -306,700,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 933,413,755
Current Assets 1,972,700,000
Current Cash 391,100,000
Current Liabilities 1,587,100,000
Current Debt 248,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 242,500,000
Change in NCWC -164,400,000
EBIT 1,292,000,000
Tax Provision 247,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 446,500,000
Capital Expenditure -269,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 993,723,346
Current Assets 1,625,200,000
Current Cash 101,300,000
Current Liabilities 2,341,500,000
Current Debt 1,224,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 406,900,000
Change in NCWC -65,700,000
EBIT 1,197,800,000
Tax Provision 187,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 446,300,000
Capital Expenditure -359,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 899,004,561
Current Assets 1,555,000,000
Current Cash 192,600,000
Current Liabilities 1,033,800,000
Current Debt 144,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 472,600,000
Change in NCWC -122,800,000
EBIT 1,258,400,000
Tax Provision -477,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 413,100,000
Capital Expenditure -321,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,226,800,000
Current Assets 1,641,800,000
Current Cash 166,800,000
Current Liabilities 1,832,600,000
Current Debt 953,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 595,400,000
Change in NCWC 60,800,000
EBIT 1,241,600,000
Tax Provision 286,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 419,000,000
Capital Expenditure -192,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,124,603,642
Current Assets 1,573,400,000
Current Cash 109,800,000
Current Liabilities 1,213,000,000
Current Debt 284,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 534,600,000
Change in NCWC -595,500,000
EBIT 1,281,200,000
Tax Provision 289,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 430,100,000
Capital Expenditure -201,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 535,503,343
Current Assets 2,052,300,000
Current Cash 125,600,000
Current Liabilities 1,022,600,000
Current Debt 226,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,130,100,000
Change in NCWC 287,100,000
EBIT 828,600,000
Tax Provision 178,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 268,400,000
Capital Expenditure -247,700,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 854,232,390
Current Assets 1,539,100,000
Current Cash 153,500,000
Current Liabilities 891,000,000
Current Debt 348,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 843,000,000
Change in NCWC 51,000,000
EBIT 954,000,000
Tax Provision 284,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 249,400,000
Capital Expenditure -279,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 655,477,851
Current Assets 1,595,200,000
Current Cash 256,400,000
Current Liabilities 596,800,000
Current Debt 50,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 792,000,000
Change in NCWC -54,785,000
EBIT 971,400,000
Tax Provision 273,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 240,500,000
Capital Expenditure -206,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 626,022,634
Current Assets 1,643,465,000
Current Cash 229,708,000
Current Liabilities 616,972,000
Current Debt 50,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 846,785,000
Change in NCWC 30,907,000
EBIT 909,815,000
Tax Provision 241,414,000
Depreciation and Amortization 208,426,000
Capital Expenditure -274,244,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 561,647,817

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