|Relative Value||60% undervalued|
An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.9%.
The calculated WACC is 8.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.
Assuming a growth rate of 17.9%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.
The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.
|Year||Future flow (billion)||Present value (billion)|
Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 20.4 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 12.3 billion.
The total present value of the projected cash flows is 3.8 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 16.1 billion.
There are presently 134.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 120.07.
The following data was to determine the past cash flows.
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||1,540,319,000|
|Change in NCWC||331,782,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||153,716,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||575,729,257|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||1,208,537,000|
|Change in NCWC||392,171,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||139,577,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||820,261,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||816,366,000|
|Change in NCWC||99,896,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||142,810,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||59,128,373|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||716,470,000|
|Change in NCWC||57,930,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||111,515,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||362,604,663|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||658,540,000|
|Change in NCWC||-122,517,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||109,680,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||220,455,655|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||781,057,000|
|Change in NCWC||285,688,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||96,510,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||480,267,666|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||495,369,000|
|Change in NCWC||-5,806,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||79,182,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||248,022,807|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||501,175,000|
|Change in NCWC||-86,034,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||52,960,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||123,336,824|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||587,209,000|
|Change in NCWC||173,499,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||48,304,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||331,162,865|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||413,710,000|
|Change in NCWC||-10,028,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||43,309,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||62,841,222|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||423,738,000|
|Change in NCWC||63,725,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||42,448,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||76,858,000|
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