DCF Tool

SPSC

SPS Commerce Inc. – Software Publishers
SPS Commerce is the world's leading retail network, connecting trading partners around the globe to optimize supply chain operations for all retail partners. The company supports data-driven partnerships with innovative cloud technology, customer-obsessed service and accessible experts so its customers can focus on what they do best. To date, more than 95,000 companies in retail, distribution, grocery and e-commerce have chosen SPS as their retail network. SPS has achieved 80 consecutive quarters of revenue growth and is headquartered in Minneapolis.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $33.79
Latest Price $145.16
Relative Value 330% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 25.1%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 10.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 25.1%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 53.9 48.9
2023 67.4 55.4
2024 84.4 62.9
2025 106 71.3
2026 132 80.9
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 1620 million. This corresponds to a present value of 899 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 319 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 1220 million.

There are presently 36.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 33.79.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 352,443,000
Current Cash 257,310,000
Current Liabilities 102,872,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -7,739,000
Change in NCWC -11,485,000
EBIT 55,085,000
Tax Provision 8,944,000
Depreciation and Amortization 24,914,000
Capital Expenditure -19,588,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 39,724,075
Current Assets 271,356,000
Current Cash 187,478,000
Current Liabilities 80,132,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,746,000
Change in NCWC -6,309,000
EBIT 50,158,000
Tax Provision 7,094,000
Depreciation and Amortization 18,665,000
Capital Expenditure -16,467,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 39,292,617
Current Assets 291,621,000
Current Cash 213,536,000
Current Liabilities 68,030,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 10,055,000
Change in NCWC -4,642,000
EBIT 38,406,000
Tax Provision 8,358,000
Depreciation and Amortization 16,438,000
Capital Expenditure -13,585,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 28,986,922
Current Assets 249,615,000
Current Cash 178,396,000
Current Liabilities 56,522,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 14,697,000
Change in NCWC 1,707,000
EBIT 26,731,000
Tax Provision 4,468,000
Depreciation and Amortization 12,686,000
Capital Expenditure -13,750,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 23,159,670
Current Assets 219,456,000
Current Cash 163,319,000
Current Liabilities 43,147,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 12,990,000
Change in NCWC -1,829,000
EBIT 8,428,000
Tax Provision 11,580,000
Depreciation and Amortization 11,782,000
Capital Expenditure -7,271,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -470,000
Current Assets 185,933,000
Current Cash 138,953,000
Current Liabilities 32,161,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 14,819,000
Change in NCWC 1,322,000
EBIT 7,517,000
Tax Provision 3,140,000
Depreciation and Amortization 11,336,000
Capital Expenditure -8,008,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 9,499,951
Current Assets 166,786,000
Current Cash 129,055,000
Current Liabilities 24,234,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 13,497,000
Change in NCWC 6,658,000
EBIT 7,023,000
Tax Provision 2,436,000
Depreciation and Amortization 9,572,000
Capital Expenditure -8,757,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 12,077,904
Current Assets 162,194,000
Current Cash 130,795,000
Current Liabilities 24,560,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 6,839,000
Change in NCWC 973,000
EBIT 4,383,000
Tax Provision 1,408,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,570,000
Capital Expenditure -7,582,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,843,206
Current Assets 156,075,000
Current Cash 131,294,000
Current Liabilities 18,915,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 5,866,000
Change in NCWC -5,124,000
EBIT 1,772,000
Tax Provision 686,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,051,000
Capital Expenditure -5,701,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -1,701,822
Current Assets 91,511,000
Current Cash 66,050,000
Current Liabilities 14,471,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 10,990,000
Change in NCWC 6,202,000
EBIT 1,572,000
Tax Provision 121,000
Depreciation and Amortization 4,918,000
Capital Expenditure -5,983,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,567,367

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