DCF Tool

STLD

Steel Dynamics Inc. – Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing
Steel Dynamics is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metals recyclers in the United States, based on estimated annual steelmaking and metals recycling capability, with facilities located throughout the United States, and in Mexico. Steel Dynamics produces steel products, including hot roll, cold roll, and coated sheet steel, structural steel beams and shapes, rail, engineered special-bar-quality steel, cold finished steel, merchant bar products, specialty steel sections and steel joists and deck. In addition, the company produces liquid pig iron and processes and sells ferrous and nonferrous scrap.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $1,832.18
Latest Price $107.63
Relative Value 94% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 42.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 42.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 6.26 5.79
2023 8.93 7.63
2024 12.7 10.1
2025 18.1 13.3
2026 25.9 17.5
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 428 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 267 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 54.2 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 322 billion.

There are presently 176.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1832.18.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 6,901,023,000
Current Cash 1,243,868,000
Current Liabilities 2,227,369,000
Current Debt 97,174,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,526,960,000
Change in NCWC 1,809,024,000
EBIT 4,301,105,000
Tax Provision 962,256,000
Depreciation and Amortization 347,653,000
Capital Expenditure -1,006,239,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,468,246,430
Current Assets 4,258,447,000
Current Cash 1,368,618,000
Current Liabilities 1,258,787,000
Current Debt 86,894,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,717,936,000
Change in NCWC 25,887,000
EBIT 866,551,000
Tax Provision 134,650,000
Depreciation and Amortization 325,789,000
Capital Expenditure -1,198,055,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -145,220,956
Current Assets 4,253,025,000
Current Cash 1,643,634,000
Current Liabilities 1,006,698,000
Current Debt 89,356,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,692,049,000
Change in NCWC -288,702,000
EBIT 986,880,000
Tax Provision 197,437,000
Depreciation and Amortization 321,082,000
Capital Expenditure -451,945,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 344,718,872
Current Assets 4,032,657,000
Current Cash 1,057,003,000
Current Liabilities 1,019,137,000
Current Debt 24,234,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,980,751,000
Change in NCWC 340,782,000
EBIT 1,722,409,000
Tax Provision 363,969,000
Depreciation and Amortization 317,198,000
Capital Expenditure -239,390,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,753,967,549
Current Assets 3,508,342,000
Current Cash 1,028,649,000
Current Liabilities 868,519,000
Current Debt 28,795,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,639,969,000
Change in NCWC 260,960,000
EBIT 1,066,881,000
Tax Provision 129,439,000
Depreciation and Amortization 298,999,000
Capital Expenditure -164,935,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,314,245,845
Current Assets 2,929,675,000
Current Cash 841,483,000
Current Liabilities 712,815,000
Current Debt 3,632,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,379,009,000
Change in NCWC 86,710,000
EBIT 860,805,000
Tax Provision 204,127,000
Depreciation and Amortization 296,109,000
Capital Expenditure -198,160,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 733,988,617
Current Assets 2,537,941,000
Current Cash 727,032,000
Current Liabilities 535,290,000
Current Debt 16,680,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,292,299,000
Change in NCWC -515,981,000
EBIT 355,716,000
Tax Provision -96,947,000
Depreciation and Amortization 294,595,000
Capital Expenditure -114,501,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 19,829,000
Current Assets 2,973,765,000
Current Cash 361,363,000
Current Liabilities 850,582,000
Current Debt 46,460,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,808,280,000
Change in NCWC 363,436,000
EBIT 580,320,000
Tax Provision 73,153,000
Depreciation and Amortization 263,325,000
Capital Expenditure -111,785,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 837,702,697
Current Assets 2,473,634,000
Current Cash 395,156,000
Current Liabilities 975,178,000
Current Debt 341,544,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,444,844,000
Change in NCWC 136,102,000
EBIT 386,833,000
Tax Provision 99,314,000
Depreciation and Amortization 230,928,000
Capital Expenditure -186,843,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 420,849,728
Current Assets 2,296,225,000
Current Cash 407,437,000
Current Liabilities 609,677,000
Current Debt 29,631,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,308,742,000
Change in NCWC -14,586,000
EBIT 399,415,000
Tax Provision 61,785,000
Depreciation and Amortization 225,216,000
Capital Expenditure -223,525,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 265,589,243

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