DCF Tool

SU

Suncor Energy, Inc. – Petroleum Refineries
Suncor Energy is Canada's leading integrated energy company. Suncor's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. A member of Dow Jones Sustainability indexes, FTSE4Good and CDP, Suncor is working to responsibly develop petroleum resources while also growing a renewable energy portfolio. Suncor is listed on the UN Global Compact 100 stock index.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $149.93
Latest Price $28.15
Relative Value 81% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 29.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.6%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 29.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 4.16 3.9
2023 5.39 4.74
2024 6.98 5.76
2025 9.05 6.99
2026 11.7 8.5
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 257 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 175 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 29.9 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 205 billion.

There are presently 1.37 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 149.93.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 8,622,186,125
Current Cash 1,731,977,808
Current Liabilities 8,168,180,151
Current Debt 1,433,496,372
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 155,524,537
Change in NCWC -1,573,317,938
EBIT 5,183,365,786
Tax Provision 1,139,727,800
Depreciation and Amortization 4,595,043,166
Capital Expenditure -3,577,849,849
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,276,960,419
Current Assets 7,365,826,363
Current Cash 1,479,286,458
Current Liabilities 8,278,510,794
Current Debt 4,120,813,364
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,728,842,476
Change in NCWC 1,825,415,142
EBIT -4,321,713,806
Tax Provision -1,395,316,351
Depreciation and Amortization 7,475,693,793
Capital Expenditure -3,080,996,623
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,898,398,506
Current Assets 7,592,451,082
Current Cash 1,502,241,482
Current Liabilities 8,076,080,866
Current Debt 1,889,298,598
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -96,572,666
Change in NCWC 174,862,454
EBIT 1,738,308,000
Tax Provision -280,520,603
Depreciation and Amortization 8,102,906,606
Capital Expenditure -4,259,927,631
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,756,149,429
Current Assets 6,382,393,397
Current Cash 1,629,344,337
Current Liabilities 7,562,769,371
Current Debt 2,538,285,190
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -271,435,121
Change in NCWC 82,709,180
EBIT 5,080,238,422
Tax Provision 1,239,798,257
Depreciation and Amortization 4,209,445,208
Capital Expenditure -3,965,887,207
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,683,526,889
Current Assets 7,621,662,877
Current Cash 2,126,457,471
Current Liabilities 7,605,746,279
Current Debt 1,756,396,572
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -354,144,302
Change in NCWC -1,254,009,242
EBIT 3,964,824,522
Tax Provision 1,160,319,982
Depreciation and Amortization 4,457,443,226
Capital Expenditure -5,213,481,623
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 977,644,673
Current Assets 8,174,453,235
Current Cash 2,237,421,813
Current Liabilities 6,021,602,406
Current Debt 984,435,923
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 899,864,940
Change in NCWC 856,600,440
EBIT 240,359,637
Tax Provision -266,324,413
Depreciation and Amortization 4,537,900,938
Capital Expenditure -4,882,861,529
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 751,999,486
Current Assets 7,519,370,100
Current Cash 2,919,632,675
Current Liabilities 5,145,591,200
Current Debt 589,118,275
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 43,264,500
Change in NCWC -736,684,754
EBIT 227,138,625
Tax Provision -23,074,400
Depreciation and Amortization 5,408,062,500
Capital Expenditure -4,807,407,025
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 91,109,346

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