DCF Tool

SUPN

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc – Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases. The Company markets Trokendi XR® (extended-release topiramate) for the prophylaxis of migraine and the treatment of epilepsy; Oxtellar XR® (extended-release oxcarbazepine) for the treatment of epilepsy; APOKYN® (apomorphine hydrochloride injection) for the acute treatment of hypomobility in advanced Parkinson's disease (PD); MYOBLOC® (rimabotulinumtoxinB) for the treatment of cervical dystonia and treatment of chronic sialorrhea in adults; and XADAGO® (safinamide) as an adjunctive treatment to levodopa/carbidopa in PD patients with hypomobility. The Company is also developing several product candidates to address large market opportunities in the CNS market, including SPN-812 for the treatment of ADHD; SPN-830 (apomorphine infusion pump) for the continuous treatment of motor fluctuations ("on-off" episodes) in PD; SPN-820 for treatment-resistant depression; and SPN-817 for the treatment of epilepsy.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $303.05
Latest Price $36.82
Relative Value 88% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 28.2%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 28.2%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 221 214
2023 284 265
2024 363 329
2025 466 408
2026 597 505
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 17900 million. This corresponds to a present value of 14700 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 1720 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 16400 million.

There are presently 54.1 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 303.05.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 601,590,000
Current Cash 339,680,000
Current Liabilities 315,379,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -53,469,000
Change in NCWC -16,245,000
EBIT 79,499,000
Tax Provision 19,751,000
Depreciation and Amortization 32,595,000
Capital Expenditure -2,045,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 72,346,060
Current Assets 630,417,000
Current Cash 422,533,000
Current Liabilities 245,108,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -37,224,000
Change in NCWC -2,208,000
EBIT 175,598,000
Tax Provision 41,698,000
Depreciation and Amortization 18,141,000
Capital Expenditure -3,449,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 144,665,621
Current Assets 472,644,000
Current Cash 347,073,000
Current Liabilities 160,587,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -35,016,000
Change in NCWC -11,132,000
EBIT 148,571,000
Tax Provision 34,431,000
Depreciation and Amortization 6,659,000
Capital Expenditure -2,736,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 106,677,939
Current Assets 493,487,000
Current Cash 356,018,000
Current Liabilities 161,353,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -23,884,000
Change in NCWC 10,705,000
EBIT 144,444,000
Tax Provision 29,183,000
Depreciation and Amortization 7,063,000
Capital Expenditure -844,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 131,296,452
Current Assets 228,451,000
Current Cash 140,040,000
Current Liabilities 123,000,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -34,589,000
Change in NCWC -15,130,000
EBIT 99,541,000
Tax Provision 43,334,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,132,000
Capital Expenditure -2,029,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 47,643,840
Current Assets 151,404,000
Current Cash 90,121,000
Current Liabilities 80,742,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -19,459,000
Change in NCWC -6,281,000
EBIT 54,216,000
Tax Provision -40,852,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,399,000
Capital Expenditure -1,603,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 48,731,000
Current Assets 105,946,000
Current Cash 62,190,000
Current Liabilities 56,934,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -13,178,000
Change in NCWC -19,445,000
EBIT 20,844,000
Tax Provision 666,000
Depreciation and Amortization 921,000
Capital Expenditure -2,104,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -734,178
Current Assets 108,726,000
Current Cash 74,336,000
Current Liabilities 28,123,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 6,267,000
Change in NCWC 17,697,000
EBIT -5,278,000
Tax Provision 630,000
Depreciation and Amortization 928,000
Capital Expenditure -593,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 12,754,000

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