DCF Tool

SUPN

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc – Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing
pioneering new medicines in neurology and psychiatry with more than 20 years of experience, we are a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products for the treatment of central nervous system (cns) disorders. in 2013 we launched oxtellar xr® and trokendi xr®, two novel neurology products for the treatment of epilepsy. we are also developing several product candidates in psychiatry to address unmet medical needs and opportunities in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (adhd) and its coexisting disorders, and depression. we are developing differentiated products by leveraging our proprietary and in-licensed technologies. we use such technologies to discover and develop novel uses for known drug compounds and to enhance their therapeutic benefits. our focus on known drug compounds with established mechanisms of action reduces the risks, costs, and time typically associated with pharmaceutical product development.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $118.93
Latest Price $28.17
Relative Value 76% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 20.7%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 7.6%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 20.7%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2023 208 194
2024 252 218
2025 304 244
2026 367 274
2027 443 308
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 8130 million. This corresponds to a present value of 5260 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 1240 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 6490 million.

There are presently 54.6 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 118.93.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 734,151,000
Current Cash 461,334,000
Current Liabilities 687,958,000
Current Debt 401,968,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -13,173,000
Change in NCWC 40,296,000
EBIT 45,614,000
Tax Provision 32,000
Depreciation and Amortization 85,543,000
Capital Expenditure -412,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 171,016,970
Current Assets 601,590,000
Current Cash 339,680,000
Current Liabilities 315,379,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -53,469,000
Change in NCWC -16,245,000
EBIT 79,499,000
Tax Provision 19,751,000
Depreciation and Amortization 32,595,000
Capital Expenditure -2,045,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 72,346,060
Current Assets 630,417,000
Current Cash 422,533,000
Current Liabilities 245,108,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -37,224,000
Change in NCWC -2,208,000
EBIT 175,598,000
Tax Provision 41,698,000
Depreciation and Amortization 18,141,000
Capital Expenditure -3,449,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 144,665,621
Current Assets 472,644,000
Current Cash 347,073,000
Current Liabilities 160,587,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -35,016,000
Change in NCWC -11,132,000
EBIT 148,571,000
Tax Provision 34,431,000
Depreciation and Amortization 6,659,000
Capital Expenditure -2,736,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 106,677,939
Current Assets 493,487,000
Current Cash 356,018,000
Current Liabilities 161,353,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -23,884,000
Change in NCWC 10,705,000
EBIT 144,444,000
Tax Provision 29,183,000
Depreciation and Amortization 7,063,000
Capital Expenditure -844,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 131,296,452
Current Assets 228,451,000
Current Cash 140,040,000
Current Liabilities 123,000,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -34,589,000
Change in NCWC -15,130,000
EBIT 99,541,000
Tax Provision 43,334,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,132,000
Capital Expenditure -2,029,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 47,643,840
Current Assets 151,404,000
Current Cash 90,121,000
Current Liabilities 80,742,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -19,459,000
Change in NCWC -6,281,000
EBIT 54,216,000
Tax Provision -40,852,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,399,000
Capital Expenditure -1,603,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 48,731,000
Current Assets 105,946,000
Current Cash 62,190,000
Current Liabilities 56,934,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -13,178,000
Change in NCWC -19,445,000
EBIT 20,844,000
Tax Provision 666,000
Depreciation and Amortization 921,000
Capital Expenditure -2,104,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -734,178
Current Assets 108,726,000
Current Cash 74,336,000
Current Liabilities 28,123,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 6,267,000
Change in NCWC 17,697,000
EBIT -5,278,000
Tax Provision 630,000
Depreciation and Amortization 928,000
Capital Expenditure -593,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 12,754,000

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