DCF Tool

TLYS

Tillys Inc – Clothing Accessories Stores
tillys is a leading specialty retailer in the action sports industry selling clothing, shoes, and accessories. we opened our first store in southern california in 1982 and have grown to 220 stores in 33 states. tillys offers one of the largest assortments of brands and merchandise from the top players in the surf, skate, motocross and lifestyle apparel industries available both in stores and online at tillys.com. our knowledge of ever-evolving trends and our access to the most popular brands allows us to have an unparalleled assortment of merchandise. our selection and the look and feel of our stores are distinct and create a shopping experience that is unique, creative and fun.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $47.38
Latest Price $7.69
Relative Value 84% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.5%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 17.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2024 45.0 41.5
2025 53.0 45.0
2026 62.3 48.8
2027 73.2 52.8
2028 86.1 57.3
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 1350 million. This corresponds to a present value of 829 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 245 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 1070 million.

There are presently 22.7 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 47.38.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 202,398,000
Current Cash 113,279,000
Current Liabilities 108,304,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -19,185,000
Change in NCWC 28,232,000
EBIT 11,187,000
Tax Provision 3,490,000
Depreciation and Amortization 14,134,000
Capital Expenditure -15,123,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 35,464,812
Current Assets 227,978,000
Current Cash 139,228,000
Current Liabilities 136,167,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -47,417,000
Change in NCWC 15,125,000
EBIT 87,595,000
Tax Provision 22,752,000
Depreciation and Amortization 16,836,000
Capital Expenditure -13,425,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 83,223,660
Current Assets 212,156,000
Current Cash 141,139,000
Current Liabilities 133,559,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -62,542,000
Change in NCWC 13,777,000
EBIT -3,040,000
Tax Provision -1,314,000
Depreciation and Amortization 19,055,000
Capital Expenditure -8,471,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 21,321,000
Current Assets 208,864,000
Current Cash 139,917,000
Current Liabilities 145,266,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -76,319,000
Change in NCWC -52,122,000
EBIT 28,455,000
Tax Provision 8,734,000
Depreciation and Amortization 20,948,000
Capital Expenditure -14,299,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -24,943,946
Current Assets 217,141,000
Current Cash 144,079,000
Current Liabilities 97,259,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -24,197,000
Change in NCWC 4,332,000
EBIT 31,480,000
Tax Provision 8,850,000
Depreciation and Amortization 22,485,000
Capital Expenditure -14,923,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 35,129,748
Current Assets 203,054,000
Current Cash 135,952,000
Current Liabilities 95,631,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -28,529,000
Change in NCWC -25,266,000
EBIT 23,986,000
Tax Provision 10,509,000
Depreciation and Amortization 23,389,000
Capital Expenditure -13,753,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -1,643,161
Current Assets 195,215,000
Current Cash 133,917,000
Current Liabilities 65,396,000
Current Debt 835,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -3,263,000
Change in NCWC -18,031,000
EBIT 19,330,000
Tax Provision 8,338,000
Depreciation and Amortization 23,266,000
Capital Expenditure -17,047,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -643,512
Current Assets 170,674,000
Current Cash 100,952,000
Current Liabilities 55,812,000
Current Debt 858,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 14,768,000
Change in NCWC 720,000
EBIT 18,096,000
Tax Provision 10,607,000
Depreciation and Amortization 22,808,000
Capital Expenditure -23,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,947,392
Current Assets 153,284,000
Current Cash 84,746,000
Current Liabilities 55,296,000
Current Debt 806,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 14,048,000
Change in NCWC -7,065,000
EBIT 23,189,000
Tax Provision 9,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 21,237,000
Capital Expenditure -23,636,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,619,502
Current Assets 126,938,000
Current Cash 60,355,000
Current Liabilities 46,228,000
Current Debt 758,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 21,113,000
Change in NCWC 3,692,000
EBIT 29,737,000
Tax Provision 11,591,000
Depreciation and Amortization 19,367,000
Capital Expenditure -42,701,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -1,499,509

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