DCF Tool

TPH

Tri Pointe Homes Inc. – New Housing For-Sale Builders
One of the largest homebuilders in the U.S., Tri Pointe Homes® is a publicly traded company and a recognized leader in customer experience, innovative design, and environmentally responsible business practices. The company builds premium homes and communities in 10 states, with deep ties to the communities it serves-some for as long as a century. Tri Pointe Homes combines the financial resources, technology platforms and proven leadership of a national organization with the regional insights, longstanding community connections and agility of empowered local teams. Tri Pointe has won multiple Builder of the Year awards, most recently in 2019, and made Fortune magazine's 2017 100 Fastest-Growing Companies list. The company was also named one of the Best Places to Work by the Orange County Business Journal for four consecutive years.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $709.95
Latest Price $24.68
Relative Value 97% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 31.8%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 2.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 31.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 0.813 0.796
2024 1.07 1.03
2025 1.41 1.32
2026 1.86 1.71
2027 2.45 2.2
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 73.6 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 64.7 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 7.06 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 71.7 billion.

There are presently 101.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 709.95.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 1,084,810,000
Current Cash 889,664,000
Current Liabilities 408,409,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -213,263,000
Change in NCWC 107,028,000
EBIT 770,905,000
Tax Provision 190,803,000
Depreciation and Amortization 28,010,000
Capital Expenditure -43,623,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 672,086,290
Current Assets 816,932,000
Current Cash 681,528,000
Current Liabilities 455,695,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -320,291,000
Change in NCWC -40,499,000
EBIT 625,137,000
Tax Provision 156,395,000
Depreciation and Amortization 32,421,000
Capital Expenditure -29,489,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 431,306,232
Current Assets 721,859,000
Current Cash 621,295,000
Current Liabilities 380,356,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -279,792,000
Change in NCWC -71,342,000
EBIT 388,016,000
Tax Provision 91,170,000
Depreciation and Amortization 29,497,000
Capital Expenditure -22,797,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 228,629,495
Current Assets 452,599,000
Current Cash 329,011,000
Current Liabilities 332,038,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -208,450,000
Change in NCWC 112,061,000
EBIT 264,230,000
Tax Provision 63,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization 28,396,000
Capital Expenditure -30,282,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 312,121,316
Current Assets 373,647,000
Current Cash 277,696,000
Current Liabilities 416,462,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -320,511,000
Change in NCWC -71,411,000
EBIT 362,484,000
Tax Provision 90,552,000
Depreciation and Amortization 29,097,000
Capital Expenditure -31,651,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 197,862,208
Current Assets 437,566,000
Current Cash 282,914,000
Current Liabilities 403,752,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -249,100,000
Change in NCWC -39,729,000
EBIT 339,667,000
Tax Provision 152,267,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,500,000
Capital Expenditure -2,605,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 148,633,660
Current Assets 333,383,000
Current Cash 208,657,000
Current Liabilities 334,097,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -209,371,000
Change in NCWC -5,999,000
EBIT 302,564,000
Tax Provision 106,094,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,087,000
Capital Expenditure -3,985,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 189,454,699
Current Assets 289,774,000
Current Cash 214,485,000
Current Liabilities 278,661,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -203,372,000
Change in NCWC -1,724,739,000
EBIT 323,661,000
Tax Provision 112,079,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,274,000
Capital Expenditure -809,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -1,507,237,009
Current Assets 1,961,353,000
Current Cash 170,629,000
Current Liabilities 269,357,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,521,367,000
Change in NCWC 1,565,287,000
EBIT 160,001,000
Tax Provision 43,767,000
Depreciation and Amortization 11,423,000
Capital Expenditure -7,850,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,674,136,516
Current Assets 36,958,000
Current Cash 35,261,000
Current Liabilities 183,729,000
Current Debt 138,112,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -43,920,000
Change in NCWC -33,473,000
EBIT 29,538,000
Tax Provision 10,379,000
Depreciation and Amortization 866,000
Capital Expenditure -506,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -15,479,434

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