TPX Intrinsic Value

TPX

Tempur Sealy International Inc – Mattress Manufacturing

tempur sealy international, inc. is the world's largest bedding provider. combining a proud history and groundbreaking innovation, the company holds some of the most highly recognized brands in the industry: tempur®, tempur-pedic®, sealy®, sealy posturepedic®, optimum™, and stearns & foster®. to ensure our progress, we’re making commitments to three groups that are critical to our growth. consumers: the best bed and the best sleep of your life we will create the most desired products at every price point, further growing the strong consumer loyalty to our brands. we will continue to be recognized as innovators in our industry. retailers: we are dedicated to your success we will develop a full and balanced portfolio across brands, products and prices, and deliver consumer advertising that will drive sales. we will create a world-class supply chain that is "easiest to do business with". our associates: you can expect maximum personal growth we will empower you to do meaningful work and

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$150.24
Latest Price	$42.50
Relative Value	72% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 27.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 27.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	0.773	0.714
2024	0.984	0.84
2025	1.25	0.989
2026	1.6	1.16
2027	2.04	1.37

Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 33.4 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 20.8 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 5.08 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 25.9 billion.

There are presently 172.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 150.24.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	1,195,200,000
Current Cash	69,400,000
Current Liabilities	981,200,000
Current Debt	70,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	215,000,000
Change in NCWC	240,500,000
EBIT	680,600,000
Tax Provision	119,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	127,100,000
Capital Expenditure	-306,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	601,382,259

Current Assets	1,275,600,000
Current Cash	300,700,000
Current Liabilities	1,053,400,000
Current Debt	53,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-25,500,000
Change in NCWC	2,000,000
EBIT	912,300,000
Tax Provision	198,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization	113,200,000
Capital Expenditure	-123,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	684,650,133

Current Assets	968,400,000
Current Cash	65,000,000
Current Liabilities	974,800,000
Current Debt	43,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-27,500,000
Change in NCWC	-126,900,000
EBIT	532,100,000
Tax Provision	102,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization	98,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-111,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	271,224,801

Current Assets	900,200,000
Current Cash	64,900,000
Current Liabilities	773,300,000
Current Debt	37,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	99,400,000
Change in NCWC	-38,300,000
EBIT	376,500,000
Tax Provision	74,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	89,700,000
Capital Expenditure	-88,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	233,769,491

Current Assets	805,400,000
Current Cash	45,800,000
Current Liabilities	669,000,000
Current Debt	47,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	137,700,000
Change in NCWC	76,700,000
EBIT	256,300,000
Tax Provision	49,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization	87,100,000
Capital Expenditure	-73,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	269,454,666

Current Assets	607,400,000
Current Cash	41,900,000
Current Liabilities	576,900,000
Current Debt	72,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	61,000,000
Change in NCWC	-69,600,000
EBIT	302,800,000
Tax Provision	47,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	81,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-129,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	108,735,668

Current Assets	671,500,000
Current Cash	65,700,000
Current Liabilities	545,500,000
Current Debt	70,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	130,600,000
Change in NCWC	6,900,000
EBIT	415,500,000
Tax Provision	86,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization	73,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-62,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	305,995,375

Current Assets	809,100,000
Current Cash	153,900,000
Current Liabilities	713,000,000
Current Debt	181,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	123,700,000
Change in NCWC	-108,300,000
EBIT	309,100,000
Tax Provision	125,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization	71,400,000
Capital Expenditure	-65,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	12,591,154

Current Assets	766,400,000
Current Cash	62,500,000
Current Liabilities	538,300,000
Current Debt	66,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	232,000,000
Change in NCWC	-12,600,000
EBIT	276,300,000
Tax Provision	64,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization	76,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-47,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	189,973,584

Current Assets	727,500,000
Current Cash	81,000,000
Current Liabilities	441,500,000
Current Debt	39,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	244,600,000
Change in NCWC	-185,100,000
EBIT	243,800,000
Tax Provision	49,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	74,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-40,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-220,156

Current Assets	821,100,000
Current Cash	179,300,000
Current Liabilities	212,100,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	429,700,000
Change in NCWC	344,776,000
EBIT	248,300,000
Tax Provision	122,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization	36,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-50,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	446,276,000

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