DCF Tool

TREX

TREX Co., Inc. – All Other Miscellaneous Wood Product Manufacturing
Trex Company, Inc. [NYSE: TREX] is the world's largest manufacturer of high-performance wood-alternative decking and railing, with more than 25 years of product experience. Stocked in more than 6,700 retail locations worldwide, Trex outdoor living products offer a wide range of style options with fewer ongoing maintenance requirements than wood, as well as a truly environmentally responsible choice.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $29.90
Latest Price $57.38
Relative Value 92% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 21.0%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 12.8%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 21.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 226 201
2023 274 215
2024 331 231
2025 401 248
2026 486 266
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 4580 million. This corresponds to a present value of 2220 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 1160 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 3380 million.

There are presently 113.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 29.9.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 401,054,000
Current Cash 141,053,000
Current Liabilities 88,702,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 171,299,000
Change in NCWC 77,356,000
EBIT 320,880,000
Tax Provision 66,654,000
Depreciation and Amortization 35,946,000
Capital Expenditure -159,394,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 197,124,112
Current Assets 321,997,000
Current Cash 121,701,000
Current Liabilities 106,353,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 93,943,000
Change in NCWC 18,242,000
EBIT 233,635,000
Tax Provision 59,003,000
Depreciation and Amortization 17,939,000
Capital Expenditure -172,823,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 38,241,216
Current Assets 303,204,000
Current Cash 148,833,000
Current Liabilities 78,670,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 75,701,000
Change in NCWC 3,950,000
EBIT 188,199,000
Tax Provision 44,964,000
Depreciation and Amortization 14,031,000
Capital Expenditure -67,265,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 94,307,247
Current Assets 270,225,000
Current Cash 105,699,000
Current Liabilities 92,775,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 71,751,000
Change in NCWC 15,976,000
EBIT 176,669,000
Tax Provision 42,289,000
Depreciation and Amortization 16,597,000
Capital Expenditure -33,816,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 133,182,908
Current Assets 148,798,000
Current Cash 30,514,000
Current Liabilities 62,509,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 55,775,000
Change in NCWC 20,175,000
EBIT 142,380,000
Tax Provision 46,791,000
Depreciation and Amortization 16,860,000
Capital Expenditure -15,040,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 117,432,007
Current Assets 105,649,000
Current Cash 18,664,000
Current Liabilities 51,385,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 35,600,000
Change in NCWC -3,986,000
EBIT 103,955,000
Tax Provision 34,983,000
Depreciation and Amortization 14,498,000
Capital Expenditure -14,551,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 64,550,272
Current Assets 99,030,000
Current Cash 5,995,000
Current Liabilities 60,449,000
Current Debt 7,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 39,586,000
Change in NCWC 13,343,000
EBIT 77,406,000
Tax Provision 28,689,000
Depreciation and Amortization 14,384,000
Capital Expenditure -23,333,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 52,879,730
Current Assets 85,241,000
Current Cash 9,544,000
Current Liabilities 49,454,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 26,243,000
Change in NCWC 1,021,000
EBIT 67,826,000
Tax Provision 25,427,000
Depreciation and Amortization 15,204,000
Capital Expenditure -12,974,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 45,316,533
Current Assets 76,180,000
Current Cash 3,772,000
Current Liabilities 47,186,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 25,222,000
Change in NCWC 12,223,000
EBIT 24,651,000
Tax Provision -10,549,000
Depreciation and Amortization 16,255,000
Capital Expenditure -13,060,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 40,069,000
Current Assets 52,637,000
Current Cash 2,159,000
Current Liabilities 42,479,000
Current Debt 5,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 12,999,000
Change in NCWC -50,326,000
EBIT 12,675,000
Tax Provision 1,009,000
Depreciation and Amortization 17,009,000
Capital Expenditure -7,593,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -31,664,625

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