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Tractor Supply Co. – Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers
Tractor Supply Company, the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States, has been passionate about serving its unique niche, as a one-stop shop for recreational farmers, ranchers and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle, for more than 80 years. Tractor Supply offers an extensive mix of products necessary to care for home, land, pets and animals with a focus on product localization, exclusive brands and legendary customer service that addresses the needs of the Out Here lifestyle. With more than 40,000 Team Members, the Company leverages its physical store assets with digital capabilities to offer customers the convenience of purchasing products they need anytime, anywhere and any way they choose at the everyday low prices they deserve. At September 26, 2020, the Company operated 1,904 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $102.71
Latest Price $185.90
Relative Value 81% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 8.8%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 8.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 617 570
2023 671 572
2024 730 574
2025 794 577
2026 863 579
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 13900 million. This corresponds to a present value of 8620 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 2870 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 11500 million.

There are presently 112.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 102.71.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 3,250,440,000
Current Cash 878,030,000
Current Liabilities 2,064,842,000
Current Debt 3,897,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 311,465,000
Change in NCWC 133,780,000
EBIT 1,306,698,000
Tax Provision 282,974,000
Depreciation and Amortization 270,158,000
Capital Expenditure -628,431,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 793,348,640
Current Assets 3,258,685,000
Current Cash 1,341,756,000
Current Liabilities 1,743,798,000
Current Debt 4,554,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 177,685,000
Change in NCWC -312,397,000
EBIT 1,065,901,000
Tax Provision 219,189,000
Depreciation and Amortization 217,124,000
Capital Expenditure -294,002,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 435,305,441
Current Assets 1,787,887,000
Current Cash 84,241,000
Current Liabilities 1,247,600,000
Current Debt 34,036,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 490,082,000
Change in NCWC -309,807,000
EBIT 743,220,000
Tax Provision 161,023,000
Depreciation and Amortization 195,978,000
Capital Expenditure -217,450,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 246,500,967
Current Assets 1,794,399,000
Current Cash 86,299,000
Current Liabilities 938,107,000
Current Debt 29,896,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 799,889,000
Change in NCWC 74,338,000
EBIT 701,737,000
Tax Provision 151,028,000
Depreciation and Amortization 177,351,000
Capital Expenditure -278,530,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 519,812,210
Current Assets 1,655,368,000
Current Cash 109,148,000
Current Liabilities 849,214,000
Current Debt 28,545,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 725,551,000
Change in NCWC 27,558,000
EBIT 686,382,000
Tax Provision 249,924,000
Depreciation and Amortization 165,834,000
Capital Expenditure -250,401,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 374,298,697
Current Assets 1,517,809,000
Current Cash 53,916,000
Current Liabilities 777,194,000
Current Debt 11,294,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 697,993,000
Change in NCWC -53,219,000
EBIT 694,080,000
Tax Provision 251,150,000
Depreciation and Amortization 142,958,000
Capital Expenditure -226,017,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 304,531,928
Current Assets 1,485,431,000
Current Cash 63,813,000
Current Liabilities 671,284,000
Current Debt 878,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 751,212,000
Change in NCWC 131,236,000
EBIT 650,508,000
Tax Provision 237,222,000
Depreciation and Amortization 123,569,000
Capital Expenditure -236,496,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 430,536,027
Current Assets 1,273,990,000
Current Cash 51,134,000
Current Liabilities 603,093,000
Current Debt 213,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 619,976,000
Change in NCWC 85,570,000
EBIT 589,472,000
Tax Provision 216,702,000
Depreciation and Amortization 114,635,000
Capital Expenditure -160,613,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 411,666,812
Current Assets 1,209,248,000
Current Cash 142,743,000
Current Liabilities 532,141,000
Current Debt 42,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 534,406,000
Change in NCWC 103,451,000
EBIT 514,650,000
Tax Provision 185,859,000
Depreciation and Amortization 100,025,000
Capital Expenditure -218,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 313,865,628
Current Assets 1,130,052,000
Current Cash 138,630,000
Current Liabilities 560,505,000
Current Debt 38,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 430,955,000
Change in NCWC -21,737,000
EBIT 436,792,000
Tax Provision 159,280,000
Depreciation and Amortization 88,975,000
Capital Expenditure -152,924,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 191,440,353

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