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Ternium S.A. – Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing
ternium es la empresa productora de acero líder en américa latina. fabrica y procesa una amplia gama de productos de acero de alto valor agregado. cuenta con centros productivos en méxico, argentina, colombia, estados unidos y guatemala; así como una red de centros de servicio y distribución en toda américa latina. además, ternium participa en el grupo de control de usiminas, una empresa líder de acero en el mercado brasileño. con más de 16,800 empleados distribuidos a lo largo de américa, ternium tiene una capacidad de producción anual de aproximadamente 10.9 millones de toneladas de productos terminados de acero y 4.0 millones de toneladas de pellets de mineral de hierro. nuestros clientes van desde empresas globales a pequeñas empresas que operan en industrias como construcción, automotrices, electrodomésticos, bienes de capital, envases, alimentos y energía. uno de nuestros objetivos es construir una relación cercana y duradera con nuestros clientes y sabemos que nuestro éxito
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $261.33
Latest Price $39.15
Relative Value 85% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 12.0%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 12.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 2.51 2.31
2024 2.81 2.39
2025 3.14 2.47
2026 3.52 2.55
2027 3.94 2.64
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 63.1 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 38.9 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 12.4 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 51.3 billion.

There are presently 196.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 261.33.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 8,842,274,000
Current Cash 3,528,351,000
Current Liabilities 2,216,830,000
Current Debt 548,179,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,645,272,000
Change in NCWC -45,525,000
EBIT 2,736,633,000
Tax Provision 573,728,000
Depreciation and Amortization 616,492,000
Capital Expenditure -580,553,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,138,229,082
Current Assets 8,604,623,000
Current Cash 2,567,006,000
Current Liabilities 3,213,764,000
Current Debt 866,944,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,690,797,000
Change in NCWC 1,895,850,000
EBIT 5,671,868,000
Tax Provision 1,397,139,000
Depreciation and Amortization 591,790,000
Capital Expenditure -523,610,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,261,169,629
Current Assets 4,561,809,000
Current Cash 1,351,355,000
Current Liabilities 1,853,597,000
Current Debt 438,090,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,794,947,000
Change in NCWC -481,204,000
EBIT 1,137,028,000
Tax Provision 291,488,000
Depreciation and Amortization 631,051,000
Capital Expenditure -560,013,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 440,988,497
Current Assets 4,176,115,000
Current Cash 732,167,000
Current Liabilities 1,768,125,000
Current Debt 600,328,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,276,151,000
Change in NCWC -434,024,000
EBIT 925,533,000
Tax Provision 196,518,000
Depreciation and Amortization 661,112,000
Capital Expenditure -1,052,252,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -119,679,168
Current Assets 4,423,889,000
Current Cash 295,070,000
Current Liabilities 1,826,530,000
Current Debt 407,886,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,710,175,000
Change in NCWC 101,844,000
EBIT 2,211,143,000
Tax Provision 369,435,000
Depreciation and Amortization 589,299,000
Capital Expenditure -520,250,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,979,945,586
Current Assets 4,392,520,000
Current Cash 470,515,000
Current Liabilities 2,827,274,000
Current Debt 1,513,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,608,331,000
Change in NCWC 1,256,097,000
EBIT 1,524,899,000
Tax Provision 336,882,000
Depreciation and Amortization 474,299,000
Capital Expenditure -409,402,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,468,111,249
Current Assets 2,690,066,000
Current Cash 328,233,000
Current Liabilities 1,831,492,000
Current Debt 821,893,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,352,234,000
Change in NCWC -42,878,000
EBIT 1,156,342,000
Tax Provision 411,528,000
Depreciation and Amortization 406,890,000
Capital Expenditure -435,460,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 659,426,493
Current Assets 2,570,537,000
Current Cash 388,594,000
Current Liabilities 1,700,617,000
Current Debt 913,786,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,395,112,000
Change in NCWC -748,525,000
EBIT 366,529,000
Tax Provision 207,320,000
Depreciation and Amortization 433,788,000
Capital Expenditure -466,643,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -699,347,730
Current Assets 3,334,113,000
Current Cash 363,298,000
Current Liabilities 2,091,386,000
Current Debt 1,264,208,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,143,637,000
Change in NCWC 469,012,000
EBIT 242,763,000
Tax Provision 339,105,000
Depreciation and Amortization 414,797,000
Capital Expenditure -443,463,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 344,004,000
Current Assets 3,201,692,000
Current Cash 475,852,000
Current Liabilities 1,849,159,000
Current Debt 797,944,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,674,625,000
Change in NCWC -245,033,000
EBIT 1,075,827,000
Tax Provision 349,426,000
Depreciation and Amortization 377,133,000
Capital Expenditure -883,317,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -74,314,299
Current Assets 3,643,610,000
Current Cash 720,116,000
Current Liabilities 2,125,446,000
Current Debt 1,121,610,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,919,658,000
Change in NCWC -129,207,000
EBIT 565,153,000
Tax Provision 264,567,000
Depreciation and Amortization 370,855,000
Capital Expenditure -1,022,592,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -546,793,618

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