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UGI

UGI Corp. – Natural Gas Distribution
UGI Corporation is a distributor and marketer of energy products and services. Through subsidiaries, UGI operates natural gas and electric utilities in Pennsylvania, distributes LPG both domestically (through AmeriGas) and internationally (through UGI International), manages midstream energy assets in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia and electric generation assets in Pennsylvania, and engages in energy marketing, including renewable natural gas in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, California, and the District of Columbia and internationally in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $5,078.07
Latest Price $32.88
Relative Value 99% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 59.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.6%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 59.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 6.59 6.3
2023 10.5 9.61
2024 16.8 14.7
2025 26.7 22.4
2026 42.7 34.1
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 1280 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 979 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 87.1 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 1070 billion.

There are presently 210.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 5078.07.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 6,540,000,000
Current Cash 1,710,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,594,000,000
Current Debt 954,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,190,000,000
Change in NCWC 1,338,000,000
EBIT 4,508,000,000
Tax Provision 1,044,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,004,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,380,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,286,904,977
Current Assets 1,543,000,000
Current Cash 336,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,755,000,000
Current Debt 400,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -148,000,000
Change in NCWC -60,600,000
EBIT 1,042,000,000
Tax Provision 135,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 484,000,000
Capital Expenditure -655,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 599,500,449
Current Assets 1,566,200,000
Current Cash 447,100,000
Current Liabilities 2,026,900,000
Current Debt 820,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -87,400,000
Change in NCWC -234,500,000
EBIT 595,100,000
Tax Provision 92,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 448,100,000
Capital Expenditure -704,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -33,493,657
Current Assets 1,888,100,000
Current Cash 452,600,000
Current Liabilities 1,732,100,000
Current Debt 443,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 147,100,000
Change in NCWC 153,700,000
EBIT 1,112,100,000
Tax Provision 32,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 455,100,000
Capital Expenditure -574,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,104,723,042
Current Assets 1,697,500,000
Current Cash 558,400,000
Current Liabilities 1,690,100,000
Current Debt 544,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -6,600,000
Change in NCWC 193,200,000
EBIT 1,003,500,000
Tax Provision 177,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 416,300,000
Capital Expenditure -638,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 720,005,902
Current Assets 1,423,800,000
Current Cash 502,800,000
Current Liabilities 1,442,000,000
Current Debt 321,200,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -199,800,000
Change in NCWC -58,900,000
EBIT 987,800,000
Tax Provision 221,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 400,900,000
Capital Expenditure -563,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 458,251,605
Current Assets 1,459,800,000
Current Cash 369,700,000
Current Liabilities 1,678,900,000
Current Debt 447,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -140,900,000
Change in NCWC -241,500,000
EBIT 833,700,000
Tax Provision 177,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 374,100,000
Capital Expenditure -490,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 225,223,724
Current Assets 1,663,000,000
Current Cash 419,500,000
Current Liabilities 1,430,900,000
Current Debt 288,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 100,600,000
Change in NCWC -7,600,000
EBIT 969,400,000
Tax Provision 235,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 362,900,000
Capital Expenditure -456,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 570,943,917
Current Assets 1,627,300,000
Current Cash 389,300,000
Current Liabilities 1,424,900,000
Current Debt 295,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 108,200,000
Change in NCWC 78,800,000
EBIT 797,900,000
Tax Provision 162,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 363,100,000
Capital Expenditure -486,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 533,782,859
Current Assets 1,504,500,000
Current Cash 319,900,000
Current Liabilities 1,487,000,000
Current Debt 331,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 29,400,000
Change in NCWC -146,400,000
EBIT 482,700,000
Tax Provision 99,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 316,000,000
Capital Expenditure -339,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 144,916,352

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