DCF Tool

ULTA

Ulta Beauty Inc – Beauty Salons
Ulta Beauty is the largest U.S. beauty retailer and the premier beauty destination for cosmetics, fragrance, skin care products, hair care products and salon services. Since 1990, the Company has brought together all things beauty, all in one place with more than 25,000 products from approximately 500 well-established and emerging beauty brands across all categories and price points, including Ulta Beauty’s own private label. Ulta Beauty also offers a full-service salon in every store featuring hair, skin, brow, and make-up services. Ulta Beauty operates retail stores across 50 states and also distributes its products through its website, which includes a collection of tips, tutorials and social content.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $767.87
Latest Price $401.19
Relative Value 48% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 29.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 10.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 29.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 1.51 1.37
2024 1.95 1.61
2025 2.53 1.89
2026 3.27 2.22
2027 4.23 2.61
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 52.9 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 29.6 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 9.7 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 39.3 billion.

There are presently 51.2 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 767.87.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 2,281,183,000
Current Cash 431,560,000
Current Liabilities 1,558,010,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 291,613,000
Change in NCWC 166,600,000
EBIT 1,297,492,000
Tax Provision 309,992,000
Depreciation and Amortization 268,460,000
Capital Expenditure -172,187,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,249,975,172
Current Assets 2,514,777,000
Current Cash 1,046,051,000
Current Liabilities 1,343,713,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 125,013,000
Change in NCWC -290,718,000
EBIT 351,142,000
Tax Provision 55,250,000
Depreciation and Amortization 297,772,000
Capital Expenditure -151,866,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 122,375,630
Current Assets 2,055,317,000
Current Cash 502,325,000
Current Liabilities 1,137,261,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 415,731,000
Change in NCWC -266,143,000
EBIT 901,094,000
Tax Provision 200,205,000
Depreciation and Amortization 295,599,000
Capital Expenditure -298,534,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 432,928,073
Current Assets 1,914,861,000
Current Cash 409,251,000
Current Liabilities 823,736,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 681,874,000
Change in NCWC 27,742,000
EBIT 854,080,000
Tax Provision 200,582,000
Depreciation and Amortization 279,472,000
Capital Expenditure -319,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 642,493,581
Current Assets 1,693,743,000
Current Cash 397,445,000
Current Liabilities 642,166,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 654,132,000
Change in NCWC 62,248,000
EBIT 785,291,000
Tax Provision 231,625,000
Depreciation and Amortization 252,713,000
Capital Expenditure -440,714,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 428,374,566
Current Assets 1,536,237,000
Current Cash 415,010,000
Current Liabilities 529,343,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 591,884,000
Change in NCWC 88,778,000
EBIT 654,824,000
Tax Provision 245,954,000
Depreciation and Amortization 210,295,000
Capital Expenditure -373,747,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 334,529,833
Current Assets 1,375,173,000
Current Cash 475,840,000
Current Liabilities 396,227,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 503,106,000
Change in NCWC 141,703,000
EBIT 506,297,000
Tax Provision 187,432,000
Depreciation and Amortization 165,049,000
Capital Expenditure -299,167,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 326,872,187
Current Assets 1,260,355,000
Current Cash 539,358,000
Current Liabilities 359,594,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 361,403,000
Change in NCWC 44,993,000
EBIT 410,415,000
Tax Provision 154,174,000
Depreciation and Amortization 131,764,000
Capital Expenditure -249,067,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 184,266,104
Current Assets 1,002,697,000
Current Cash 419,476,000
Current Liabilities 266,811,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 316,410,000
Change in NCWC 68,628,000
EBIT 327,588,000
Tax Provision 124,857,000
Depreciation and Amortization 106,283,000
Capital Expenditure -226,024,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 151,662,958
Current Assets 789,324,000
Current Cash 320,475,000
Current Liabilities 221,067,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 247,782,000
Change in NCWC 86,143,000
EBIT 279,978,000
Tax Provision 107,244,000
Depreciation and Amortization 88,233,000
Capital Expenditure -188,578,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 158,461,089

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