DCF Tool

UNP

Union Pacific Corp. – Line-Haul Railroads
Union Pacific delivers the goods families and businesses use every day with safe, reliable and efficient service. Operating in 23 western states, the company connects its customers and communities to the global economy. Trains are the most environmentally responsible way to move freight, helping Union Pacific protect future generations.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $1,001.74
Latest Price $221.29
Relative Value 78% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 22.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 5.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 22.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 12.2 11.5
2023 15.0 13.4
2024 18.3 15.5
2025 22.5 18.0
2026 27.5 20.9
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 765 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 550 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 79.4 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 629 billion.

There are presently 628.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1001.74.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 7,102,000,000
Current Cash 2,012,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,488,000,000
Current Debt 4,332,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,066,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,317,000,000
EBIT 18,676,000,000
Tax Provision 3,910,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 4,416,000,000
Capital Expenditure -5,872,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 11,596,373,437
Current Assets 4,214,000,000
Current Cash 1,859,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,173,000,000
Current Debt 1,069,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -749,000,000
Change in NCWC -223,000,000
EBIT 7,834,000,000
Tax Provision 1,631,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,210,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,927,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,063,447,851
Current Assets 3,459,000,000
Current Cash 891,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,351,000,000
Current Debt 1,257,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -526,000,000
Change in NCWC -196,000,000
EBIT 8,554,000,000
Tax Provision 1,828,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,216,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,453,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,102,578,417
Current Assets 4,163,000,000
Current Cash 1,333,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,626,000,000
Current Debt 1,466,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -330,000,000
Change in NCWC 168,000,000
EBIT 8,517,000,000
Tax Provision 1,775,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,191,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,437,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,486,064,332
Current Assets 4,006,000,000
Current Cash 1,365,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,939,000,000
Current Debt 800,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -498,000,000
Change in NCWC 125,000,000
EBIT 8,061,000,000
Tax Provision -3,080,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,105,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,238,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,053,000,000
Current Assets 3,596,000,000
Current Cash 1,337,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,640,000,000
Current Debt 758,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -623,000,000
Change in NCWC -750,000,000
EBIT 7,272,000,000
Tax Provision 2,533,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,038,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,505,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,332,567,839
Current Assets 4,130,000,000
Current Cash 1,391,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,206,000,000
Current Debt 594,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 127,000,000
Change in NCWC 337,000,000
EBIT 8,052,000,000
Tax Provision 2,884,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,012,000,000
Capital Expenditure -4,650,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,717,827,586
Current Assets 4,679,000,000
Current Cash 1,586,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,765,000,000
Current Debt 462,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -210,000,000
Change in NCWC 318,000,000
EBIT 8,753,000,000
Tax Provision 3,163,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,904,000,000
Capital Expenditure -4,346,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,310,560,709
Current Assets 3,990,000,000
Current Cash 1,432,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,791,000,000
Current Debt 705,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -528,000,000
Change in NCWC -156,000,000
EBIT 7,446,000,000
Tax Provision 2,660,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,777,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,496,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,760,790,011
Current Assets 3,614,000,000
Current Cash 1,063,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,119,000,000
Current Debt 196,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -372,000,000
Change in NCWC 226,000,000
EBIT 6,745,000,000
Tax Provision 2,375,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,760,000,000
Capital Expenditure -4,012,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,183,486,388

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