DCF Tool

UPS

United Parcel Service, Inc. – Couriers and Express Delivery Services
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907. Originally known as the American Messenger Company specializing in telegraphs, UPS has grown to become a Fortune 500 company and one of the worlds largest shipping couriers.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $269.40
Latest Price $153.78
Relative Value 43% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 16.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 16.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 9.81 9.05
2024 11.4 9.73
2025 13.3 10.5
2026 15.5 11.3
2027 18.0 12.1
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 291 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 180 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 52.6 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 233 billion.

There are presently 865.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 269.4.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 22,217,000,000
Current Cash 7,595,000,000
Current Liabilities 18,140,000,000
Current Debt 2,341,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,177,000,000
Change in NCWC -80,000,000
EBIT 13,094,000,000
Tax Provision 3,277,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,188,000,000
Capital Expenditure -4,769,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,538,629,814
Current Assets 24,934,000,000
Current Cash 10,593,000,000
Current Liabilities 17,569,000,000
Current Debt 2,131,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,097,000,000
Change in NCWC -604,000,000
EBIT 12,810,000,000
Tax Provision 3,705,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,953,000,000
Capital Expenditure -4,194,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,105,039,168
Current Assets 20,216,000,000
Current Cash 6,316,000,000
Current Liabilities 17,016,000,000
Current Debt 2,623,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -493,000,000
Change in NCWC 138,000,000
EBIT 7,684,000,000
Tax Provision 501,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,698,000,000
Capital Expenditure -5,412,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,020,318,872
Current Assets 17,103,000,000
Current Cash 5,741,000,000
Current Liabilities 15,413,000,000
Current Debt 3,420,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -631,000,000
Change in NCWC -524,000,000
EBIT 7,798,000,000
Tax Provision 1,212,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,360,000,000
Capital Expenditure -6,380,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,581,817,409
Current Assets 16,210,000,000
Current Cash 5,035,000,000
Current Liabilities 14,087,000,000
Current Debt 2,805,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -107,000,000
Change in NCWC -2,889,000,000
EBIT 7,024,000,000
Tax Provision 1,228,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,207,000,000
Capital Expenditure -6,283,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -1,374,040,704
Current Assets 15,548,000,000
Current Cash 4,069,000,000
Current Liabilities 12,708,000,000
Current Debt 4,011,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,782,000,000
Change in NCWC 1,549,000,000
EBIT 7,529,000,000
Tax Provision 2,238,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,282,000,000
Capital Expenditure -5,227,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,775,710,968
Current Assets 13,849,000,000
Current Cash 4,567,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,730,000,000
Current Debt 3,681,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,233,000,000
Change in NCWC 429,000,000
EBIT 5,467,000,000
Tax Provision 1,705,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,224,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,965,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,340,117,795
Current Assets 13,208,000,000
Current Cash 4,726,000,000
Current Liabilities 10,696,000,000
Current Debt 3,018,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 804,000,000
Change in NCWC -5,000,000
EBIT 7,668,000,000
Tax Provision 2,498,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,084,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,379,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,759,083,628
Current Assets 11,808,000,000
Current Cash 3,283,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,639,000,000
Current Debt 923,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 809,000,000
Change in NCWC -250,000,000
EBIT 4,968,000,000
Tax Provision 1,605,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,923,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,328,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,593,431,313
Current Assets 13,387,000,000
Current Cash 5,245,000,000
Current Liabilities 7,131,000,000
Current Debt 48,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,059,000,000
Change in NCWC 1,000,000
EBIT 7,034,000,000
Tax Provision 2,302,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,867,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,065,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,410,828,588
Current Assets 15,591,000,000
Current Cash 7,924,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,390,000,000
Current Debt 1,781,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,058,000,000
Change in NCWC -470,000,000
EBIT 1,343,000,000
Tax Provision 167,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,858,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,153,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 347,732,032

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