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UPS

United Parcel Service, Inc. – Couriers and Express Delivery Services
UPS, one of the world's largest package delivery companies with 2019 revenue of $74 billion, provides a broad range of integrated logistics solutions for customers in more than 220 countries and territories. The company's more than 500,000 employees embrace a strategy that is simply stated and powerfully executed: Customer First. People Led. Innovation Driven. UPS is committed to being a steward of the environment and positively contributing to the communities we serve around the world. UPS also takes a strong and unwavering stance in support of diversity, equity and inclusion.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $78.54
Latest Price $171.04
Relative Value 118% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 1.0%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 7.5%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 1.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 3.48 3.24
2023 3.52 3.04
2024 3.55 2.86
2025 3.59 2.69
2026 3.63 2.52
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 67.0 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 43.3 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 14.4 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 57.7 billion.

There are presently 734.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 78.54.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 24,934,000,000
Current Cash 10,593,000,000
Current Liabilities 17,569,000,000
Current Debt 2,131,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,097,000,000
Change in NCWC -604,000,000
EBIT 12,810,000,000
Tax Provision 3,705,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,953,000,000
Capital Expenditure -4,194,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,105,039,168
Current Assets 20,216,000,000
Current Cash 6,316,000,000
Current Liabilities 17,016,000,000
Current Debt 2,623,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -493,000,000
Change in NCWC 138,000,000
EBIT 7,684,000,000
Tax Provision 501,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,698,000,000
Capital Expenditure -5,412,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,020,318,872
Current Assets 17,103,000,000
Current Cash 5,741,000,000
Current Liabilities 15,413,000,000
Current Debt 3,420,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -631,000,000
Change in NCWC -524,000,000
EBIT 7,798,000,000
Tax Provision 1,212,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,360,000,000
Capital Expenditure -6,380,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,581,817,409
Current Assets 16,210,000,000
Current Cash 5,035,000,000
Current Liabilities 14,087,000,000
Current Debt 2,805,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -107,000,000
Change in NCWC -2,889,000,000
EBIT 7,024,000,000
Tax Provision 1,228,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,207,000,000
Capital Expenditure -6,283,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -1,374,040,704
Current Assets 15,548,000,000
Current Cash 4,069,000,000
Current Liabilities 12,708,000,000
Current Debt 4,011,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,782,000,000
Change in NCWC 1,549,000,000
EBIT 7,529,000,000
Tax Provision 2,238,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,282,000,000
Capital Expenditure -5,227,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,775,710,968
Current Assets 13,849,000,000
Current Cash 4,567,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,730,000,000
Current Debt 3,681,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,233,000,000
Change in NCWC 429,000,000
EBIT 5,467,000,000
Tax Provision 1,705,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,224,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,965,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,340,117,795
Current Assets 13,208,000,000
Current Cash 4,726,000,000
Current Liabilities 10,696,000,000
Current Debt 3,018,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 804,000,000
Change in NCWC -5,000,000
EBIT 7,668,000,000
Tax Provision 2,498,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,084,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,379,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,759,083,628
Current Assets 11,808,000,000
Current Cash 3,283,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,639,000,000
Current Debt 923,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 809,000,000
Change in NCWC -250,000,000
EBIT 4,968,000,000
Tax Provision 1,605,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,923,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,328,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,593,431,313
Current Assets 13,387,000,000
Current Cash 5,245,000,000
Current Liabilities 7,131,000,000
Current Debt 48,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,059,000,000
Change in NCWC 1,000,000
EBIT 7,034,000,000
Tax Provision 2,302,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,867,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,065,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,410,828,588
Current Assets 15,591,000,000
Current Cash 7,924,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,390,000,000
Current Debt 1,781,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,058,000,000
Change in NCWC -470,000,000
EBIT 1,343,000,000
Tax Provision 167,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,858,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,153,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 347,732,032

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