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XPO Logistics Inc – General Freight Trucking, Long-Distance, Truckload
XPO Logistics, Inc. provides cutting-edge supply chain solutions to the most successful companies in the world. The company is the second largest contract logistics provider and the second largest freight broker globally, and a top three less-than-truckload provider in North America. XPO uses a highly integrated network of 1,629 locations and over 100,000 employees in 30 countries to help more than 50,000 customers manage their supply chains most efficiently. The company's corporate headquarters are in Greenwich, Conn., USA, and its European headquarters are in Lyon, France. Visit xpo.com
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $293.56
Latest Price $44.52
Relative Value 85% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 24.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 9.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 24.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 1.33 1.22
2023 1.66 1.39
2024 2.07 1.58
2025 2.58 1.8
2026 3.21 2.05
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 44.2 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 25.7 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 8.02 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 33.8 billion.

There are presently 115.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 293.56.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 2,677,000,000
Current Cash 260,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,538,000,000
Current Debt 58,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -63,000,000
Change in NCWC 436,000,000
EBIT 672,000,000
Tax Provision 87,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 476,000,000
Capital Expenditure -313,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,128,404,878
Current Assets 5,370,000,000
Current Cash 2,054,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,153,000,000
Current Debt 1,338,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -499,000,000
Change in NCWC -290,000,000
EBIT 391,000,000
Tax Provision 31,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 766,000,000
Capital Expenditure -526,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 259,101,351
Current Assets 3,342,000,000
Current Cash 377,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,258,000,000
Current Debt 84,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -209,000,000
Change in NCWC -449,000,000
EBIT 821,000,000
Tax Provision 129,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 739,000,000
Capital Expenditure -601,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 323,868,189
Current Assets 3,688,000,000
Current Cash 502,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,313,000,000
Current Debt 367,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 240,000,000
Change in NCWC -57,600,000
EBIT 704,000,000
Tax Provision 122,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 716,000,000
Capital Expenditure -551,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 659,654,416
Current Assets 3,587,900,000
Current Cash 396,900,000
Current Liabilities 2,997,100,000
Current Debt 103,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 297,600,000
Change in NCWC 181,500,000
EBIT 623,200,000
Tax Provision -99,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 658,400,000
Capital Expenditure -503,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 959,300,000
Current Assets 3,073,600,000
Current Cash 373,400,000
Current Liabilities 2,731,600,000
Current Debt 147,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 116,100,000
Change in NCWC -21,700,000
EBIT 488,100,000
Tax Provision 22,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization 643,400,000
Capital Expenditure -483,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 524,483,988
Current Assets 2,957,200,000
Current Cash 289,800,000
Current Liabilities 2,694,400,000
Current Debt 164,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 137,800,000
Change in NCWC -71,900,000
EBIT -28,600,000
Tax Provision -90,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization 364,900,000
Capital Expenditure -249,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 15,400,000
Current Assets 1,233,100,000
Current Cash 644,100,000
Current Liabilities 381,100,000
Current Debt 1,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 209,700,000
Change in NCWC 156,357,000
EBIT -40,900,000
Tax Provision -26,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 98,300,000
Capital Expenditure -44,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 169,157,000
Current Assets 172,172,000
Current Cash 21,524,000
Current Liabilities 99,333,000
Current Debt 2,028,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 53,343,000
Change in NCWC 33,238,000
EBIT -52,325,000
Tax Provision -22,442,000
Depreciation and Amortization 20,795,000
Capital Expenditure -11,585,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -9,877,000
Current Assets 320,934,000
Current Cash 252,293,000
Current Liabilities 49,027,000
Current Debt 491,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 20,105,000
Change in NCWC 9,367,000
EBIT -27,964,000
Tax Provision -11,195,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,713,000
Capital Expenditure -6,981,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -22,865,000

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